Mongolia, the rushing outpost of democracy in Northeast Asia, is under renewed pressure from its authoritarian neighbors Russia and China to give up its independence and form an anti-cooperation triangle. -Western as a result of the war in Ukraine.

The country stubbornly pursues a path of neutrality, coupled with a policy of economic diversification designed to keep alive its unique culture and still relatively recent independence, according to Nomin Chinbat, its culture secretary.

A former Soviet satellite state until 1990 and heavily dependent on China as a market and channel for its copper and coal exports, Mongolia needs to tread carefully. In size it may match France, but in terms of population it is a minnow, with just 3.5 million people, half of whom live in the capital, Ulaanbaatar.

So far, he has dodged a definitive position on Ukraine by abstaining from key UN Security Council votes. However, his ruling party, the Mongolian people, is attending briefings given by United Russia, Russia’s largest party – which has been interpreted in Russia as support for the war.

Undoubtedly, all this is a disappointment for Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Ukrainian president, who spent four of his childhood years in the Mongolian city of Erdenet as the son of a Soviet mining specialist.

Chinbat, a graduate of the University of East Anglia, is a model of diplomacy when she points out that the term ambassador was coined in Mongolia. “To abstain was a decision that our country had to make because of our geopolitical situation,” she said. “We have had very healthy and manageable relations with our two neighbours, but we also have a third neighbor policy which allows us to develop multi-pillar international relations with other countries.

“We have survived where we are and our sovereignty has been respected by our neighbours. But democracy is what will allow us to continue to develop.

Chinbat, who has been tasked with attracting foreign investment to her country – be it filmmakers, industrialists or tourists – said there has been a generational change among Mongolians, with more 60% are under 35 years old. said, is defined less by relations with the country’s neighbors and more by Mongolia’s own development.

Nevertheless, if there is a protracted war, Mongolia’s ultimate political direction could once again be up for grabs, especially if China and Russia genuinely form the long-discussed anti-Western alliance, making it more difficult for Mongolia to play its two powerful neighbors against each other. .

One path for the country is to form the third part of a Russian-Chinese triangle, largely becoming a transport hub between the two superpowers and a supplier of raw materials, while the other option is to try to recognize the economic importance of both countries. , while exploiting Mongolia’s own mineral resources to diversify the economy and modernize. The visit in May of British Asia Minister Amanda Milling is a sign that Britain and the United States will try to pressure her to follow this latter course.

Some claim that Mongolia has actually already chosen the Sino-Russian option, since four days after the invasion it signed a memorandum of understanding to advance the long-standing Trans-Mongolian Gas Pipeline deal. This gas pipeline would increase Mongolia’s dependence on Russia by taking gas from the Siberian fields of Yamal and allowing Russia to transport gas originally intended for Europe to find a new market in China.

As a landlocked country, its vulnerability to China has been revealed by prolonged Chinese border closures caused by Covid, slowing a projected increase in Mongolian energy exports to Chinese ports that should be made possible by a network of new lines. freight that will reduce journey times by a third.

Chinbat said the government has invested heavily in a broader economic policy of privatization, tourism, climate policies and rural development, which will enable it to diversify its economy over the next 20 years. The plan must succeed: in April, young people took to the streets to protest the impact of inflation on their lives.

Once at the helm of one of his country’s biggest independent broadcasters, Chinbat said Mongolia would not go back on democracy. “We have free media and democracy. That’s one of the beauties of Mongolia: that we have this ability to have so many different media, from black and white to common ground.

Chinbat acknowledged that the Mongolian culture of ubiquitous citizen journalists operating in a society that is not particularly media literate could be frustrating, but said: “The media should be a challenge – that’s what I fought for. during my time in the media industry. Democracy and freedom of speech keep our society alive and upright.

A bigger problem identified by Chinbat was keeping young people attached to the nomadic lifestyle, when parents sometimes want to send their children to be educated in the city.

Chinbat said that at the heart of the nomadic mentality is respect for nature, an ability to survive extreme weather conditions and good neighborliness which means doors are left open in case herders get lost. Mongolian politicians will need all this tact and ingenuity in the years to come.